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Thursday, 17 January 2013

Uphill task for WP and oppositions

Last General Election 2011, PAP Palmer garnered 54.5% of the valid votes in the Punggol East single ward constituency and WP's Lee Li Lian 41%. Desmond Lim of the SDA got 4.5%. It was a 3 corner contest.
This by-election will see a 4 corner fight with a newcomer Kenneth Jeyeratnam of RP.
Assuming WP still get 41% of votes and SDA 4.5% votes and RP obtain 7% ( which I have predicted) of the valid votes, the PAP will still win with a majority of 47.5% of the votes.
For the WP to win outright, the 2 other opposition parties will have to garner a total of 18.5% of the valid votes. In other words, if Desmond Lim's  votes remain as it was in GE 2011( 4.5%), Kenneth from the RP must capture 14% of the votes.
14% of the votes  would mean 4,430 ( total 31,649 voters this time round) new votes against the PAP which I think is extremely difficult.

Therefore, it would be a BIG surprise if PAP loses this election.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Vote PAP sure win one.

Amy said...

Dont be cocksure PAP will win.Look at the situation now,frequent train breakdown,long queue for everything from buses,food to POSB. Singaporeans are getting tired of the government. Also look at the high profile cases of civil servants and an MP involving in scandals with women and extra marital affairs. WP will and MUST win,period!

Anonymous said...

He is so "Comical"....

Watch this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DH4DQP1bxjQ

Anonymous said...

Great analysis BT! You truly possess a sharp mind and acute analytical skills. Such a shame you don't write editorial columns in the newspaper.

Anonymous said...

The PAP candidate looks so sure he will win, that he showed his arrogrance by saying " I don't need sympathy votes.
Lets hope the resident of Ponggol East don't sympathise with him...ha..ha how lian

Anonymous said...

Frankly speaking the PAP candidate does not need sympathy votes to win the election. As an MP he will certainly do well.